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PA ANALYSIS: Operation Twist, Stick or Go Bust?

From PA ANALYSIS Jun 21 2012 BY: Esther Armstrong

"Let's twist again, like we did last summer", so goes the song by Chubby Checker, which seemed to be the sentiment behind Ben Bernanke and co.’s announcement of further monetary stimulus yesterday.

But will the extension of Operation Twist by a further $267bn make a marked difference, or were traders right to be disappointed by the absence of QE3?

Operation Twist describes a monetary process where the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) buys and sells short-term and long-term bonds depending on its objective.

In September last year the Fed used the device to attempt to lower long-term interest rates, by selling short-term treasury bonds and buying long-term treasury bonds and consequently pushing long-term yields lower.

That operation was due to conclude this month, but the Fed has said it will now continue through the end of the year in what Bernanke termed a "highly-accommodative policy".

The FOMC will purchase T-bills with maturities of between six and 30 years and sell or redeem an equal amount of T-bills with three years or less left until they mature.

"The continuation of the Maturity Extension Programme [operation twist's formal name] should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and make broader financial conditions more accommodative than they would otherwise be, therefore supporting the economic recovery," said Bernanke.

More of the same then.

Some would argue that this is no bad thing; of all the markets across the globe the US has held its own this year, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones on a steady upward trajectory until the beginning of May. They have also been in recovery mode since the start of this month, following a sell off in May.

US bulls

Many managers have also been espousing the virtues of the US, with Crispin Odey, one of the most high profile, going as far as changing the mandate on his flagship European hedge fund so he could take advantage of the growth opportunities across the pond.

His reasoning, along with that of other US bulls, is the economy has rebalanced and deleveraged ahead of Europe and the UK and has every chance of growing from here.

Corporate balance sheets are generally in good nick globally, but in the US where companies are first-class they are doing even better.

"The US has been expensive every year in my career. The PE ratios of companies are at a premium because it is the best market with the best companies and the best dividends and payouts and you get a lovely exposure to the dollar which will do well if Greece exits the Euro," said David Coombs, head of multi-asset investments, "You're paying a premium for a reason and you have to get used to it."

On the other hand, Coombs said any market valuations made off the back of government bond yields would be inaccurate while QE and monetary stimulus in its various guises is ongoing.

This is because gilts, treasuries and bunds are trading on "false yields" and when you are pricing valuation metrics off false inputs, you are in a "very, very scary place" from an asset allocation point of view. Although he does still think equities are cheap, but for different reasons.

US bear

Another person who is less than bullish on the US is Bryan Collings, managing partner of Hexam Capital and lead manager of the Global Emerging Markets Fund at the firm.

He said after the election the US would be ripe for a reversal, as it alongside the problems in the eurozone has proven an effective distraction for investors.

Collings does not envisage a massive capitulation from US equities, but said the easy money has been made in that market and once risk comes back on the table capital will start to flow elsewhere.

The Fed has also brought its growth forecasts down and is not benign about the challenges the US economy faces.

Chubby Checker might take a light-hearted tone in his 1961 classic, but Bernanke was grave in his address yesterday and his decision to "twist again" not taken lightly at all.

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