S&P's rattles euro cages with threat of further downgrades
From Macro News Dec 6 2011 BY: Gary Corcoran
, Group Editor
, Portfolio Adviser and International Adviser
Standard & Poor’s gave the eurozone leaders a serious kick up the backside as it put 15 of the 17 countries that use the single currency on credit watch.
The two countries that escaped the warning are Greece, whose debt is already junk, and Cyprus that is already on negative watch.
The move was prompted by S&P’s belief that “systemic stresses in the eurozone have risen in recent weeks to the extent that they now put downward pressure on the credit standing of the eurozone as a whole.”
This has been described as “wrecking the mood of growing optimism” though the proposals that Nicolas Sarkosy, France’s President, and Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, have put together are just that, proposals. They are not policies yet and still have to be agreed by the rest of the eurozone at its Brussels summit at the end of this week.
S&P’s has said it expects to conclude its review of the region’s ratings as soon after the summit on 8 and 9 December as it can.
“Depending on the score changes, if any, that our rating committees agrees are appropriate for each sovereign, we believe that ratings could be lowered by up to one notch for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and Luxembourg, and by up to two notches for the other governments.”
The proposals that Merkel and Sarkosy has put together include:
- automatic sanctions for a country that runs up a deficit of more than 3% of GDP;
- private investors to be protected against having to cover any government losses;
- the European Stability Mechanism should be brought forward to 2012, with decisions based on a majority rather than having to be unanimous;
- eurozone leaders to meet monthly to discuss growth as the crisis unwinds.