Moody's: UK AAA-rating faces near-term eurozone threats
From Macro News Dec 21 2011 BY: Gary Corcoran
, Group Editor
, Portfolio Adviser and International Adviser
Moody’s Investors Service has confirmed its view on the UK’s “significant structural strengths” but warns of “formidable and rising” challenges in the near term.
In its annual credit report on the UK, Moody’s recognises the strengths of the UK government’s long-term economic fundamentals, its institutional strength and the government’s own financial strength while admitting its susceptibility to event risk.
Senior analyst at Moody’s Sarah Carlson describes the UK as “having one of the most competitive of the large advanced economies in the world, and a track record of reversing increases in debt over many decades.
“The country's fiscal institutions are strong and have improved over the past 19 months with the establishment of the Office for Budget Responsibility.
“In addition, its national currency and central bank provide the UK with substantial flexibility in developing responses to economic and financial shocks. Debt refinancing risks are limited for the UK due to the long average maturity (nearly 14 years) of its debt, its large domestic investor base, and the willingness and ability of its central bank to purchase government debt.”
In the same report, she points out the threats to the UK’s continued structural strength of the weaker global economic outlook, and the eurozone crisis in particular.
She says these threats will reduce the UK’s ability to absorb any continued fiscal shocks “without rating implications”.
Carlson adds: “The currently stable outlook on the UK government's AAA-rating depends in part on the assumption that the government will stay on track with its fiscal consolidation programme. However, any additional weakening in the macroeconomic outlook or a need to support the banking system could temporarily set back the government's fiscal consolidation efforts.”
She stops short of making any rating recommendation though is clear in her assessment that even though the UK is not a member of the eurozone, no EU sovereign rating can be immune to its crisis.