Gold miners surge as Trump risk lifts commodity optimism

Added 9th November 2016

Gold jumped as much as $75 an ounce on Wednesday, while gold miners surged as investors watched Donald Trump edge ever closer to the White House.

Gold miners surge as Trump risk lifts commodity optimism

But, as with the other knee-jerk market reactions to the news that the property developer with no previous political experience will be the 45th American president, the yellow metal’s move moderated somewhat following his acceptance speech.

Striking a much more conciliatory tone than characterised his campaign and notably lacking any mention of his more extreme campaign promises, the speech seemed to calm some of the initial jitters and saw gold fall back toward the important technical level of £1,300 per ounce.

Gold stocks on the other hand continued to move higher. On the ASX, Newcrest Mining was up 9.8%, while in London all the gold miners were up with Fresnillo and Randgold Resources the standouts, 8.6% and 7.31% higher respectively.

The move to gold is unsurprising given its traditional role as a safe haven during times of uncertainty.

As European Wealth investment strategist, Richard Stammers put it, “Safe havens are up – our gold positions were put in precisely in case of this and are acting as the buffer we wanted”.

But, there is a view among many analysts that the ongoing uncertainty is likely to continue to be a boon for gold. According to James Butterfill, head of research & investment strategy at ETF Securities, there have been continued inflows into not only gold but also silver and platinum in the past few weeks. And, he says, he expects to see further strength.

“When you have a change in political administration in the US, gold has historically appreciated about 10% over the following 12 months. We have looked at the last 21 elections and when you see a shift you tend to see gold go up and equities go down.”

Adrian Ash, head of research at Bullion Vault said the firm had seen very strong demand overnight with a ratio of about three to one, buyers to sellers. He too remains bullish on the outlook for the metal given the uncertainty that a Trump presidency brings with it, but reiterated that it does look like markets are taking stock before panicking into any major move.

But, he added: "If Trump proves to be the belligerent, high-spending protectionist that America just voted for, the underlying move in world gold prices looks set to keep rising."

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Geoff Candy

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Geoff Candy joined Portfolio Adviser as News Editor in May 2014. He has been a financial journalist and broadcaster since 2005 and, in that time has worked in both South Africa and the Netherlands, covering everything from high street retailers and construction companies to mining and insurance.

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