PA CONGRESS: Supply-side concerns pushing oil price further down

Added 12th October 2015

Far be it for me to criticise Goldman Sachs, but a $20 per barrel oil price? Really..? I asked commodities expert Michael Hulme what he thinks.

Even with the clout that Goldman Sachs undoubtedly has, its suggestion that the global oil surplus is such that oil could be driven as low as $20 is closer to ridicule than many of its predictions.

Do not forget, Carmignac’s Michael Hulme reminds us, it was not that long ago that they were talking about a price of $200 per barrel, adding that given the oil price could be any number on any given day, the answer is undoubtedly somewhere in the middle.

What Hulme is more interested in, as he told Portfolio Adviser recently is trends over the post one, two or three years that have identified key drivers such as drawdowns, excess supply in the US and Saudi Arabia’s OPEC policy.

These influence his long-term investment view by nudging him away from the integrated oil model preferred by European businesses into…well, click on the arrow above and listen to what Hulme himself has to say.

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About Author

Gary Corcoran

Director

Portfolio Adviser & International Adviser

Gary Corcoran is the editorial director for Portfolio Adviser, International Adviser and Fund Selector Asia. He is also programme director and chairman for events hosted across the UK, South Africa, Middle East and Asia. Gary joined Last Word Media in August 2006 as the launch editor of Portfolio Adviser, having previously worked at Bacon & Woodrow, Legal & General, FT Business and MSM International.

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