PA ANALYSIS: Trump could win; it might not be all bad

Added 13th September 2016

The brouhaha over Hillary Clinton’s pneumonia is just the latest sideshow in the US presidential election circus. While it is unlikely to derail her campaign, it has served once again to highlight the fact that a Trump presidency remains a possibility and markets are increasingly concerned.

PA ANALYSIS: Trump could win; it might not be all bad

According to Marko Papic, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research the probability of Trump getting elected, at around 25%, remains fairly low. But, he expects this to rise as the election gets nearer.

Speaking on the Brewin Dolphin podcast recently, Papic explained that Trump’s strategy of appealing to white, blue collar workers (a strategy he dubbed, “the great white hype”) is, from a mathematical perspective, absolutely the correct one for Trump to pursue victory in 2016.

“If Trump pursues increasing the white share of the vote for the GOP then states like Ohio and Florida are very much in play,” he explained.

“The problem for Trump is that boosting the share of the white vote by 5% nationwide is really tough. Romney won 59% of the white vote, you are asking Trump to win 64% and we haven’t seen those sorts of figures since [Ronald] Reagan was elected.”

However, he pointed out, because of the electoral college system, Trump doesn’t actually need such a large nationwide boost, instead, in order to compete successfully in swing states like Florida and Ohio, what he needs is between 1% and 2% more of the white vote than Mitt Romney got in those states in 2012.

But he added: “If he can win Ohio, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, the states we believe he has to win to remain competitive, then he only has 260 electoral college votes and he needs 10 more. So, he would then need to win either Virginia and Colorado – states he is currently losing by about 10%.”

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Needs to Win almost ALL Swing States

With the end of the primaries, without the National Popular Vote bill in effect, the political relevance of three-quarters of all Americans is now finished for the presidential election. Over the last few decades, presidential election outcomes within the majority of states have become more and more predictable. From 1992- 2012 13 states (with 102 electoral votes) voted Republican every time 19 states (with 242) voted Democratic every time If this 20 year pattern continues, without the National Popular Vote bill in effect, Democrats only would need a mere 28 electoral votes from other states. If Republicans lose Florida (29), they would lose. “As the fastest-growing group of voters in the country’s biggest swing state, “you could make the case that [Puerto Ricans are] the most important voters in the United States,” Fernand Amandi, a Florida pollster Some states have not been competitive for more than a half-century and most states now have a degree of partisan imbalance that makes them highly unlikely to be in a swing state position. • 41 States Won by Same Party, 2000-2012 • 32 States Won by Same Party, 1992-2012 • 13 States Won Only by Republican Party, 1980-2012 • 19 States Won Only by Democratic Party, 1992-2012 • 7 Democratic States Not Swing State since 1988 • 16 GOP States Not Swing State since 1988

Posted by: kohler, 14 Sep 2016

About Author

Geoff Candy

Group digital editor

Geoff Candy joined Portfolio Adviser as News Editor in May 2014. He has been a financial journalist and broadcaster since 2005 and, in that time has worked in both South Africa and the Netherlands, covering everything from high street retailers and construction companies to mining and insurance.



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