PA OPINION: What if Brexit goes to extra time?

Added 21st June 2016

With yesterday’s woeful draw, the England football team will feasibly last longer in Europe than their nation, but what if the referendum ends up being a tie? Penalties?

PA OPINION: What if Brexit goes to extra time?

I can imagine Boris and Cameron pulling up their socks for a blast from 12 yards, or perhaps a cheeky Panenka from Corbyn as Farage dives too far to the right.

As I discussed last week, investors face a hectic post-poll Friday as they prepare to trade in what could possibly be some great bargains washed up by market weakness – in both equities and in fixed income.

Still, it’s a brave investor who makes a call on the outcome of the referendum. According to Britain Elects, an amalgamation of various gauges of public opinion, the vote today stands at 51.2% to 48.8% in favour of remain.

Whether or not you trust these kinds of polls – and most probably don’t – that’s still a pretty darn small margin. Have investors considered what would happen to sentiment if the real result is that close?

“If you look at my diary for Friday morning, I have one call after another lined up with various fund management groups to understand what their knee-jerk reaction will be,” remarks Richard Philbin, CIO, Wellian Investment Solutions.

"I'm imagining a cheeky Panenka from Corbyn as Farage dives too far to the right"

“If the vote is, say, 65% to 35% either way then that’s fine, but what many managers are not considering is if the vote is more like 52% versus 48% then it becomes a scratch that isn’t going to go away.

“Britain in the EU will become a long-term political hot potato and it will be in every party’s manifesto every four years until we get a significant decision one way or another.”

This could therefore mean prolonged disruption and volatility for markets and for sterling.

Alternatively, if Britain does vote to leave the EU, it is wise not to rule out the possibility of the prime minister initiating further negotiations with a vexed Brussels, and coming back to the electorate with the bargaining power to present a more persuasive argument for inclusion. Stranger things have happened.

Kames Income Hub


Vincent McEntegart, manager of the Kames Diversified Monthly Income Fund, explains how he aims to deliver a stable and sustainable income of 5% p.a.*, paid monthly, by investing in a range of asset classes

Square Mile Research

Matthews Asia Funds Asia Dividend
Matthews Asia Funds Asia Dividend...

Talking Factsheets is a video service for users...

Visitor's Comments Add your comment

Add Your Comment

We won't publish your address

About Author

Gary Shepherd


Portfolio Adviser

Gary joined Last Word Media in 2009, becoming editor of Portfolio Adviser a year later. Previously, he worked at Incisive Media with roles across its Professional Adviser, Investment Week, Bloomberg Money and Mortgage Solutions titles. Gary has been shortlisted for various awards, winning Headline Money Investment Writer of the Year in 2010.



Investment Strategy




PA Channel Island 2016
PA Channel Island 2016

8th November 2016
The Royal Yacht, Jersey


17th November 2016
The Andaz

PA Emerging Markets 2016
PA Emerging Markets 2016

1st December 2016
The Mayfair, London

Sponsored Content

Investment Strategy