PA ANALYSIS: Are value stocks diamonds or landmines at the moment?

Added 12th April 2016

The big shift from the growth style of investing into a value style has been played out a number of times, but there are reasons to believe it could be an unwise move this time around.

PA ANALYSIS: Are value stocks diamonds or landmines at the moment?

Typically, as a traditional equity bull market slows or grinds to a halt investors look for a way to keep the returns coming, which inevitably puts value investing in their sights. In a parallel fashion to a party where the good wine has run out, rather than call it a day they decide to move on to the cheap beer.

Plenty of investors have tilted toward value this year already with more likely to follow. This has worked in the past to some extent at least, and the party has carried on albeit not being as good as earlier in the night. This time around though, there are increasing signs that piling into a bunch of cheap stocks right now could leave you nursing the investment version of a nasty hangover.

It should be borne in mind that in many cases value stocks are ‘cheap’ for a good reason. Sure, there will be plenty of gems where the market has not realised the true qualities and earnings potential of a company, particularly the lower you go down the market cap scale.

However a large proportion of them will just be duds of course, and while fund managers will earnestly tell you they have procedures, models and various stock picking techniques which will allow them to side-step the turkeys and snap up the diamonds in the rough, they only need to get it wrong a few times to wipe out any prospect of meaningful returns.   

Something which jumped out as I read comments from Fidelity’s Alex Wright on value investing was the fact that he predicated his outlook for value stocks on macroeconomic conditions remaining relatively benign. Wright noted that some sectors in particular such as banks, oil and construction seem to have a recession priced in already, but what kind of recession?

"Plenty of investors have tilted toward value this year already with more likely to follow"

Sponsors

Overseas earners will be key amidst 2017 inflation

Sponsored by Neptune

Overseas earners will be key amidst 2017 inflation...

A by-product of sterling weakness is inflation, and we expect this to continue to gather steam over the coming months, with energy and food prices the hardest hit....

Kames Income Hub

home_research_centre

Vincent McEntegart, manager of the Kames Diversified Monthly Income Fund, explains how he aims to deliver a stable and sustainable income of 5% p.a.*, paid monthly, by investing in a range of asset classes

Square Mile Research

AXA Distribution Fund
AXA Distribution Fund

Talking Factsheets is a video service for users...

Visitor's Comments Add your comment

Add Your Comment

We won't publish your address

About Author

Alex Sebastian

News editor

Alex joined Portfolio Adviser in April 2014 and has been a financial journalist since 2008. He has previously held editorial positions at the Financial Times Group and Euromoney Institutional Investor. Alex is NCTJ qualified and has a degree in economics from the University of Sussex.

Profiles

Viewpoint

Investment Strategy

Feature

Tweets

Events

PA SRI 2017
PA SRI 2017

Tuesday 21st February
Radisson Blu Edwardian Bloomsbury Street Hotel, London

PA Japan 2017
PA Japan 2017

Wednesday 8th March
Furniture Makers' Hall, London

PA Dublin 2017
PA Dublin 2017

Tuesday 14th March
Westbury Hotel, Dublin

PA Asia 2017
PA Asia 2017

Wednesday 22nd March
Furniture Makers' Hall 

Sponsored Content

Investment Strategy

OTHER STORIES FROM LAST WORD...